In its report entitled «Rapid assessment of the socio-economic consequences of the Ebola outbreak in the DRC», the UN agency estimated that up to 985,000 people could fall below the poverty line, and regional economic damage in the event of a worst-case scenario could reach 3.6 billion US dollars. The outbreak of Ebola virus strain Bundibugio is a major shock to the DRC and neighboring countries, including Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan.
While sanitary measures such as quarantine remain necessary, UNDP highlights the side effects of restrictions on movement and disruptions to trade, especially in the informal sector. «Ebola doesn't stop at hospital doors. Its consequences affect livelihoods, education, food security, trade, public finances, and public confidence. If we treat Ebola only as a health crisis, we risk underestimating the devastating impact it has on development», said Ahunna Eziakonwa, UN Under Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for Africa.
According to the analysis, even if the outbreak remains localized within the DRC and Uganda, the economic consequences will be significant: the projected loss of real GDP in the DRC will amount to more than one billion dollars, and about 55,000 jobs will be at risk. Across the continent, disruptions in trade, border restrictions, and reduced activity in informal markets could lead to a $2.37 billion reduction in GDP, as well as a 1.76% decrease in daily consumption among the poorest 20% of households. In a more serious «polycrisis» scenario, combining the Ebola outbreak with global disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, Africa could lose up to $3.6 billion in economic output and 328,000 jobs.
The report also highlights the gender dimension of the crisis. Women, who make up the majority of cross-border informal trade and are widely represented in the health sector at the forefront, are most susceptible to economic and medical consequences. In addition, they take on the bulk of the responsibilities of caring for family members, which increases their vulnerability. Moreover, the reallocation of health resources to fight Ebola could trigger a secondary health crisis.
UNDP estimates that disruptions to health services could lead to 2,520 additional infant deaths in the DRC from causes unrelated to Ebola. To limit these impacts, UNDP recommends coordinated and gender-sensitive responses based, inter alia, on strengthening targeted remittances, creating «smart borders» to support core economic activities, and maintaining priority social spending, especially in the areas of maternal and child health.
The UN Agency calls on governments, development partners, and international financial institutions to move beyond purely medical approaches, while investing in health systems, social protection, livelihoods, and economic sustainability. This assessment was presented after the Ebola outbreak was declared an international public health emergency by the World Health Organization on May 17. The outbreak, centered in eastern DRC, is linked to the Bundibugio strain, for which there is currently no registered vaccine or approved treatment.
Despite this alarming situation, the DRC authorities call for calm and reject any alarmist rhetoric. They highlight the efforts being made in collaboration with national and international partners to contain the epidemic. They also recall the country's experience in managing health crises: The DRC has already faced sixteen previous Ebola epidemics, each of which has been brought under control after extensive response operations.
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