Timely decisions and early actions are key to improving Kenya's resilience

Edward Muriuki, Interim Head of the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMSA), opened a four-day workshop in Nairobi on the creation of a national technical platform for collaborative development and action-based forecasting (ABF). He noted the need for partnership in disaster risk management: «Each alert should lead to concrete actions to turn forecasts into protection and create a safer and more resilient Environment».

Despite KMSA's achievements in forecasting and early warning systems, difficulties remain in translating data into concrete measures to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events. «Accurate forecasts alone will not save people. Timely decisions and coordinated measures will ensure the preservation of lives», he said. Success is possible only with effective partnership and collaboration, especially in the face of climate change, which is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.

The initiative is being implemented amid concerns about the El Nino phenomenon and the rainy season in October and December, caused by the positive phase of the Indian Ocean asymmetry (IOD), which may lead to excessive precipitation. «Precipitation is essential for agriculture and water supply, but its excess carries threats, including flooding and infrastructure destruction», Muriuki explained. Therefore, action-based forecasting (ABF) is required, which links meteorological information with preventive measures.

Thanks to the joint development, meteorologists, disaster management specialists and other stakeholders will create effective early warning systems. «Action-based forecasting should ensure that informed decisions are made», Muriuki stressed. The workshop, organized by KMSA in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Operations Center (NDOC), the UK Meteorological Office and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with the support of the WISER program, brought together experts to develop hazard impact tables for Kenya that take into account the needs of vulnerable populations and the principles of gender balance, disability and social inclusion (GEDSI).